Covid Situation in SG discussion (compiled)

[Derren]

Data from Israel suggests that the rate of protection against infection from the Delta variant drops sharply several months after vaccination. Data from the UK seems to be much more promising. Dr John Campbell believes this is due to the longer period between the 2 doses administered (8-11 weeks vs 3 weeks) in the UK. 

 

We may need a booster by the end of the year.

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Derren

[Guest Wtf]

31 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

I already provided a source but you refused to see: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vaccinated-people-singapore-three-quarters-071043455.html

Sorry, what - are you serious? I give you the British Medical Journal, the CDC and Oxford Academic and your source is… yahoo news?! 
 

The sources I linked to are based on studies of 3,950 healthcare workers and the other is based on a study of over 1.1 million people. Peer reviewed, scientific data. And your source is yahoo news. And that article doesn’t even say what you think it says btw. 

 

i don’t need to discuss with you anymore because you are showing your own ridiculousness quite perfectly by yourself. 

[jlone]

4 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

You are focusing on the wrong data. Focus instead on the fact that hundreds - the vast majority - of unvaccinated don't require oxygen implementation. Last night, CNA reported that a partially vaccinated person is "at serious risk" meaning that person might be admitted to ICU soon. If partial vaccination doesn't help in this case, why does full vaccination help? If full vaccination helps, why do you need a booster shot next year, and the year after, etc? Are you going to be injected every year for the rest of your life, while praying you don't get cancer or some other illness from all these injections years down the road?

 

Vaccinated people who show no symptoms don't know they have COVID, so they don't report sick, so they can silently spread the virus in a social setting. So the vaccinated should be restricted in their movements because they are unwary they are carrying the virus. You refuse to acknowledge this because you don't want to.

 

"Unvaccinated people should be restricted in their movements for their own protection" is typical PAP talk to justify what they want. It is also false as the latest numbers show that a large number of vaccinated people in Singapore are infected. In other words, whatever vaccination does, it sure doesn't protect against infection.

I quite agree with all that you've written, esp when we do not know the side effects of these vaccinations that may happen in time to come. But too bad the majority do not agree with you, so are those people on top n the big pharma companies which produce these vaccines. They are all out to create more big bucks for themselves. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by jlone

[Derren]

34 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

You are focusing on the wrong data. Focus instead on the fact that hundreds - the vast majority - of unvaccinated don't require oxygen implementation. Last night, CNA reported that a partially vaccinated person is "at serious risk" meaning that person might be admitted to ICU soon. If partial vaccination doesn't help in this case, why does full vaccination help? If full vaccination helps, why do you need a booster shot next year, and the year after, etc? Are you going to be injected every year for the rest of your life, while praying you don't get cancer or some other illness from all these injections years down the road?

 

Vaccinated people who show no symptoms don't know they have COVID, so they don't report sick, so they can silently spread the virus in a social setting. So the vaccinated should be restricted in their movements because they are unwary they are carrying the virus. You refuse to acknowledge this because you don't want to.

 

"Unvaccinated people should be restricted in their movements for their own protection" is typical PAP talk to justify what they want. It is also false as the latest numbers show that a large number of vaccinated people in Singapore are infected. In other words, whatever vaccination does, it sure doesn't protect against infection.

 

1. Partial vaccination doesn't produce as much immune response as a full vaccination. The data does suggest that fully vaccinated people are less likely to require ICU than the partially vaccinated.

 

2. Vaccinated people may indeed be asymptomatic carriers. But because the risk of serious illness is low, they are not expected to overwhelm the ICU units. The danger is they spread it to the unvaccinated. If too many unvaccinated ones get seriously ill, the ICU units may be overwhelmed. That's when the death rate will rise dramatically. The current death rate is low only because our hospitals are able to give very good medical attention to those who are severely ill from Covid.

 

3. Thus, vaccinated people can be allowed to have more freedom of movement. It's the unvaccinated people who needs to be protected so that our medical resources do not get stretched thin.

 

4. Luc Montagnier may have a point about vaccination in the middle of pandemic resulting in the appearance of more variants. But what's the alternative? Wait the pandemic out until we get herd immunity? Lockdown? It may take many many years. Can we take the death toll and economic suffering? With the sheer number of people getting covid, variants are bound to occur anyway. 

 

5. Yes, a booster may be required every year. Yes, we don't have data for the long term risks of the vaccines. But they are not un-calculated risks. There is no substantial evidence of potential illnesses as yet. But the dangers of Covid are very real as you can see from the example of India. 

 

 

[Guest 犯贱冰冰]

4 hours ago, Guest Wtf said:

Sorry, what - are you serious? I give you the British Medical Journal, the CDC and Oxford Academic and your source is… yahoo news?! 
 

The sources I linked to are based on studies of 3,950 healthcare workers and the other is based on a study of over 1.1 million people. Peer reviewed, scientific data. And your source is yahoo news. And that article doesn’t even say what you think it says btw. 

 

i don’t need to discuss with you anymore because you are showing your own ridiculousness quite perfectly by yourself. 

 

LOL 👋

[Guest guest]

13 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

Does it make sense for a Nobel Prize winner to spread fear? Why would he do that? He's a winner! He's intelligent and respected and knows what he's talking about. Why should he harm his reputation by talking nonsense? Makes no sense, right?

 

Protection against the Delta variant comes from social distancing and good hygiene, not from being injected with a hurriedly-developed vaccine.

Don't know got any data show that just purely social distancing and good hygiene can prevent and protect a person from infected with covid? If social distancing, wearing of mask and good hygiene can protect people from covid, then how come even developed countries like Japan, Taiwan and Korea until today still have so high numbers of covid cases?

[Guest guest]

4 hours ago, Derren said:

Data from Israel suggests that the rate of protection against infection from the Delta variant drops sharply several months after vaccination. Data from the UK seems to be much more promising. Dr John Campbell believes this is due to the longer period between the 2 doses administered (8-11 weeks vs 3 weeks) in the UK. 

 

We may need a booster by the end of the year.

 

 

 

Thought i read somewhere that WHO do not suggest booster at the moment?

[Derren]

3 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

Thought i read somewhere that WHO do not suggest booster at the moment?

 

The key phrase is "at the moment". We will have to wait for more data. Dr Campbell is saying it is likely we will need a booster, based on the data from Israel so far. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Derren

[Guest guest]

5 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

You are focusing on the wrong data. Focus instead on the fact that hundreds - the vast majority - of unvaccinated don't require oxygen implementation. Last night, CNA reported that a partially vaccinated person is "at serious risk" meaning that person might be admitted to ICU soon. If partial vaccination doesn't help in this case, why does full vaccination help? If full vaccination helps, why do you need a booster shot next year, and the year after, etc? Are you going to be injected every year for the rest of your life, while praying you don't get cancer or some other illness from all these injections years down the road?

 

Vaccinated people who show no symptoms don't know they have COVID, so they don't report sick, so they can silently spread the virus in a social setting. So the vaccinated should be restricted in their movements because they are unwary they are carrying the virus. You refuse to acknowledge this because you don't want to.

 

"Unvaccinated people should be restricted in their movements for their own protection" is typical PAP talk to justify what they want. It is also false as the latest numbers show that a large number of vaccinated people in Singapore are infected. In other words, whatever vaccination does, it sure doesn't protect against infection.

Not wrong to say that all the things happened here and things said by PAP are just their usual PAP tactics and style. So no right no wrong if the person choose not to believe them. It is same like during GE, PAP can say and promise anything to get a vote from you. And ultimately who you vote for still depends on you. So now they can say until the covid situation now very scary and even can show you all the reports from all over the world to justify what they have said is correct, you will never go wrong if go for vaccination, esp everyone is doing it and not only you alone.

[Guest guest]

4 minutes ago, Derren said:

 

The key phrase is "at the moment". We will have to wait for more data. Dr Campbell is saying it is likely we will need a booster, based on the data from Israel so far. 

No wonder sg govt as usual very kiasu and already have plan to secure the booster now? Even do we really need a booster or not. Like what they are doing now is to get everyone to be vaccinated, whether does it really helping or not? Like people always say, do first then think. Haha.

[lonelyglobe]

33 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

Thought i read somewhere that WHO do not suggest booster at the moment?

The only reason for WHO to say that is because the whole world short of vaccines now, a lot of countries have not even get the first jab and if every country start the third jab,  the situation will just get even worse.

 

Remember at the start they refuse to acknowledge it as a pandemic and they say don't need to wear mask because there is not enough mask for everyone. 

[Guest guest]

18 minutes ago, lonelyglobe said:

The only reason for WHO to say that is because the whole world short of vaccines now, a lot of countries have not even get the first jab and if every country start the third jab,  the situation will just get even worse.

 

Remember at the start they refuse to acknowledge it as a pandemic and they say don't need to wear mask because there is not enough mask for everyone. 

Actually quite sad for this pandemic, some countries high high population vaccination rate and some countries not even get a jab at all. So i wonder how sg going to open up since even sg is already fully vaccinated, but others still not yet ready to open up, why sg keeps rushing on vaccination and open up?

[lonelyglobe]

6 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

Actually quite sad for this pandemic, some countries high high population vaccination rate and some countries not even get a jab at all. So i wonder how sg going to open up since even sg is already fully vaccinated, but others still not yet ready to open up, why sg keeps rushing on vaccination and open up?

Actually SG have already open up one way quarantine free travel for some countries before but for both way, probably have to be countries that are well control like New Zealand,  brunei etc.

 

If Sporean don't vaccinate, SG will not gain confidence from other countries. SG cannot open up, there will be lack of workers,  talents and tourists which all have a huge economic impact on this tiny nation. 

[Guest guest]

8 minutes ago, lonelyglobe said:

Actually SG have already open up one way quarantine free travel for some countries before but for both way, probably have to be countries that are well control like New Zealand,  brunei etc.

 

If Sporean don't vaccinate, SG will not gain confidence from other countries. SG cannot open up, there will be lack of workers,  talents and tourists which all have a huge economic impact on this tiny nation. 

But even sg open up but others not ready to open up also no use. Esp if situation in sg still consider not stable and seems like sg wanted to live with the covid, not every countries are willing to accept what sg is doing. Esp for those countries who have low covid cases.

[Derren]

5 hours ago, Guest guest said:

No wonder sg govt as usual very kiasu and already have plan to secure the booster now? Even do we really need a booster or not. Like what they are doing now is to get everyone to be vaccinated, whether does it really helping or not? Like people always say, do first then think. Haha.

 

The data is clear that high vaccination rates have a major impact on lowering infection rates. 

https://www.mdpi.com › pdf

 

 

[Derren]

4 hours ago, Guest guest said:

But even sg open up but others not ready to open up also no use. Esp if situation in sg still consider not stable and seems like sg wanted to live with the covid, not every countries are willing to accept what sg is doing. Esp for those countries who have low covid cases.

 

SG and countries which have similarly high vaccination rates and stable Covid situations will form travel corridors/bubbles and open up to one another. 

 

So yes, we need to have high vaccination rates and to stabilise the covid spread, or else few countries will want to have travel corridor with us.

 

 

[PlayersGroup]

10 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

You are focusing on the wrong data. Focus instead on the fact that hundreds - the vast majority - of unvaccinated don't require oxygen implementation...

 

So to summarize your points:

 

1. The vast majority will recover without vaccination and won't need oxygen or ICU.

 

2. Even if vaccinate, will still get covid, will still spread it without knowing.

 

3. Vaccination is a mistake n blunder n will create variants (according to reputable virologist).

 

4. The mrna vaccines are hurriedly developed, they are not good.

 

5. Social distancing and good hygiene are what works.

 

Based on ur points above, therefore, are you saying people should not vaccinate. Did I understand you correctly n did I miss out any points? Please enlighten me.

[Guest China and SG together]

I find it quite sad that SG does not recognise those who were vaccinated with Sinovac as “being vaccinated”. And why isn’t Sinovac considered under the National Programme too? Just becos you “do not want to upset Beijing”, you (reluctantly) accepted the Sinovac to be ordered and shipped from Beijing, yet now you are not recognising this under the national programme. If Beijing finds out about this, won’t it upset Beijing even more??

 

I know SG is a small country and we need both the US and China help, we cannot offend anyone of them. But does that mean we can just “slide more” to US and be perfunctory to China? China is indeed booming now and perhaps might even overtake US in times to come. Perhaps its time we should work alongside with China now?? I believe Singapore would progress better if we work together alongside China. 
 

That being said, SG govt should consider Sinovac to be part of national programme, in order to be fair. Why must they separate Sinovac with Pfizer and Moderna? Just becos the former is from China and the latter is from US? Then think again. Where does our ancestors come from? They come from the Great China! So why shouldnt we work alongside with China instead of always being perfunctory to them??

[single42]

i am sad to be reading this thread where there're so many folks who are such simple minded folks. you folks are so easily manipulated by rumors and what hearsays. The thing is simple.. the "carrot" or the "stick" method has already been discussed..

 

If one is vaccinated, you can go out to dine, but so far as we know its within 2 persons from the same family household but that will be discussed soon by the govt

 

If one is vaccinated, you can go to the gym but with mask on. You can also go work out in 2s.. that again its to be discussed govt

 

If one is vaccinated, you can go travel but depends on the country u go to.. when u come back, u might not be even required to served SHN / to be quarantined. You can still stay at home but you must go for vigilant testing - that again its to be discussed by the govt

 

Now, if you don't want to get vaccinated by hearing what ur friends had said or what others had said to you and u think it's some sort of mind control from the govt & some sort of conspiracy theories.. hey.. really it's up to you.. u have ur rights and those jokers who refused to be vaccinated, please don't sabotaged others.

 

Don't go out

Don't travel

stay in doors

 

so IF you're really so simple minded, easily swayed by what others have to say, sad to say, this community has really tons of SUPERFICIAL characters who has no mindset of their own & are super indecisive. You must read what others have to write before u can make up ur own mind.. Tsk tsk tsk.. 

[Guest guest]

I think the only way to solve all the debates on the vaccination or not vaccination issue, is hope for this covid faster go away, and so everyone of us will be back to precovid days. Unlike now people are fighting and arguing each other for not vaccinated or vaccinated.

[Derren]

59 minutes ago, Guest China and SG together said:

I find it quite sad that SG does not recognise those who were vaccinated with Sinovac as “being vaccinated”. And why isn’t Sinovac considered under the National Programme too? Just becos you “do not want to upset Beijing”, you (reluctantly) accepted the Sinovac to be ordered and shipped from Beijing, yet now you are not recognising this under the national programme. If Beijing finds out about this, won’t it upset Beijing even more??

 

I know SG is a small country and we need both the US and China help, we cannot offend anyone of them. But does that mean we can just “slide more” to US and be perfunctory to China? China is indeed booming now and perhaps might even overtake US in times to come. Perhaps its time we should work alongside with China now?? I believe Singapore would progress better if we work together alongside China. 
 

That being said, SG govt should consider Sinovac to be part of national programme, in order to be fair. Why must they separate Sinovac with Pfizer and Moderna? Just becos the former is from China and the latter is from US? Then think again. Where does our ancestors come from? They come from the Great China! So why shouldnt we work alongside with China instead of always being perfunctory to them??

 

According to OYK, the reason for not putting Sinovac under the National Vaccination Programme is because important data regarding the efficacy against the Delta variant has not been provided.

Edited July 27, 2021 by Derren

[Derren]

10 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

I think the only way to solve all the debates on the vaccination or not vaccination issue, is hope for this covid faster go away, and so everyone of us will be back to precovid days. Unlike now people are fighting and arguing each other for not vaccinated or vaccinated.

 

Ok, let's all hope harder then. 

[Derren]

1 hour ago, single42 said:

so IF you're really so simple minded, easily swayed by what others have to say, sad to say, this community has really tons of SUPERFICIAL characters who has no mindset of their own & are super indecisive. You must read what others have to write before u can make up ur own mind.. Tsk tsk tsk.. 

 

By your reasoning, the deep thinkers are those who do not read or consider others' opinions when forming their own?

 

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Derren

[PlayersGroup]

4 hours ago, PlayersGroup said:

 

So to summarize your points:

 

1. The vast majority will recover without vaccination and won't need oxygen or ICU.

 

2. Even if vaccinate, will still get covid, will still spread it without knowing.

 

3. Vaccination is a mistake n blunder n will create variants (according to reputable virologist).

 

4. The mrna vaccines are hurriedly developed, they are not good.

 

5. Social distancing and good hygiene are what works.

 

Based on ur points above, therefore, are you saying people should not vaccinate. Did I understand you correctly n did I miss out any points? Please enlighten me.

 

Hi lookseelooksee, since you have not responded, for discussion sake, I'm going to assume the summary of your points is accurate. Let's look at the merit of each of the points then.

 

1. Vast majority will recover without needing ICU n oxygen support.

 

True. It is also true, though, statistically, 99% of deaths and severe or long-term illness occurs in unvaccinated people and not in  fully vaccinated people. 

 

2. Even when vaccinated, you can still have covid without knowing and spread it. 

 

True. It is also true, though, that when you are asymptomatic, you are less infectious. You cough less, expel less droplets into the air, leave them on surfaces to infect others. Which means, if you are vaccinated, the disease spreads less.  

 

3. Vaccination is a mistake and will make variants.

 

That is not a fact yet based on current information, it is an opinion held by one virologist.

 

There are different views on this. In one view, variants were already occuring without vaccines, and when vaccination results in less people falling ill, spreads to less people (see point 2 above) the chances of more mutations and variants actually lessens logically. Variants will still occur with vaccination, but vaccination will make it less likely to occur.

 

The other view, is that vaccine will result in vaccine enhanced forms of stronger Covid-19. To be honest, more data is needed let's not dismiss it out of hand. But as of now, the disease is new and still evolving. So far, this has not been observed to occur. So far, so good. 

 

4. The mrna vaccines are done in a rush and not good.

 

I think it is a logical fallacy. What is done quick is not good is not neccessarily true. Conversely, what is done slowly may not be neccessarily good as well.

 

Were researchers rushing? I would think they were. Thankfully they did, I wouldn't want them to dilly dally while people are dying around the world of Covid.

 

But even when rushing, they have to cross the same hurdles. Through the trials, they've shown that vaccination is safe for the vast majority, and that they have high efficacy against the virus, including the variants. Mrna vaccines is not new new, they have been used, safely. And so far, millions of people around the globe have gotten the vaccines, and so far, the results have been very promising. 

 

5. Safe distancing and hygiene stops spread of disease.

 

We agree here, nothing to add. 

 

=======

 

Just as you are not wrong to be really risk-adverse and don't want to be vaccinated, people who choose to vaccinate are not stupid sheep.

 

We all know there are risks, because the Covid is new, not because vaccination doesn't work. It does work. The more the overall population are vaccinated, the less likely we get severe disease. If more of us are protected, the frail and elderly who cannot be vaccinated gets protected, hospitals and ICUs are freeier to handle the usual emergency load. We reduce needless deaths of fellow Singaporeans.

 

That's why the advice has always been, the benefits outweighs the risks from a public health point of view. And I'm thankful for anyone, the ministers included, who value all life, and not let anyone (including the young) experience needless suffering from covid,  and we don't let needless suffering and deaths occur in our frail and elderly too. We can disagree on the smaller points, but this is the Singapore I want and proud to live in. 

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by PlayersGroup

[Guest Guest]

On 7/25/2021 at 7:08 AM, lookseelooksee said:

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vaccinated-people-singapore-three-quarters-071043455.html

 

If you click the link above, you will see that the article says:
 
A)   "Three quarters of Singapore's COVID-19 infections in the last four weeks were among vaccinated individuals, government data shows..." (very 1st line, 1st paragraph)
 
B)   "It reported 1,096 locally transmitted cases in the last 28 days, of which 484, or 44%, were fully vaccinated people, while 30% were partially vaccinated and the remaining 25% were unvaccinated." (3rd paragraph)
 
Looking at A) and B), especially B), you don't have to be the world's greatest mathematician to figure out that vaccination appears to put a person at greater risk of getting COVID. How? I don't know. Maybe vaccination weakens one's immune system so one gets COVID more easily, or maybe vaccination leads one to lower his guard in social settings.
 
Further along in the article, it says:
 
C)   "The data also showed that infections in the last 14 days among vaccinated people aged over 61 were at about 88%, higher than the younger age group." (9th paragraph)
 
What C) means is that 88% of vaccinated seniors got COVID as compared to 12% of unvaccinated seniors. These statistics are correct as the government said recently that out of 81 seniors that got COVID, 12 of them were unvaccinated (which means 69 were vaccinated).
 
Now aren't we constantly being told that only 70% of our seniors have been vaccinated? But if 30% of our seniors are unvaccinated yet only 12% of them kena COVID, isn't it better to remain unvaccinated?

 

The interpretation of the data is wrong on multiple levels. First and foremost, the vaccine cannot attract the other variants to focus on the vaccinated.

 

The reaons as to why it might appear that the vaccinated seems to be getting more infected, might be becasue more people in the population are getting vaccinated now. Another reason why the vaccinated might appear to be more vulnerable to the latter variants, is simply becasue people got complacent after getting themselves vaccinated.

 

Is the current vaccine going to be effective against the new variants remains debatable, with some countries saying the effcetivesness is as high as 90%, just like how it is agains the original virus, while others are saying the figure is lower. However, regardless what the figure is, the virus is constantly evloving even as we speak. Do you want to wait till the final variants become stable after eradicating half the human population before you go for the vaccination? What we are trying to do is merely trying to outlast the virus as it constantly evolves. The human race is playing a catch-up game here, with the virus taking the lead in multiple unpredictable evolution ways. 

[single42]

This is actually simple.. this is what the govt can do.. 

 

NON- VACCINATED CITIZENS 

 

Round them up and ship them off to St John Island & see what happens after a period of time (few years) food & water & basic necessities will still be shipped to them via Navy.

 

Vaccinated citizens

 

They will remained on this tropical floating financial hub and enjoy fringe benefits & privileges handed out by the government.

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Then the rest of the world will sit back and see what would happen.. surely we would get to see some of the folks who are among the unvaccinated group will resist & fight among themselves & they will lined up to take the vaccinations to gain their way back to he main island all for the sake of getting those "benefits & privileges"

 

But Instead of doing this "Barbaric & Inhumane" acts.. 

 

The govt is now dangling the "carrot" or the "stick" method in front of the media.. so think about it

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by single42

[Kimochi]

1 minute ago, single42 said:

This is actually simple.. this is what the govt can do.. 

 

NON- VACCINATED CITIZENS 

 

Round them up and ship them off to St John Island & see what happens after a period of time (few years) food & water & basic necessities will still be shipped to them via Navy.

 

Vaccinated citizens

 

They will remained on this tropical floating financial hub and enjoy fringe benefits & privileges handed out by the government.

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Then the rest of the world will sit back and see what would happen.. surely we would get to see some of the folks who are among the unvaccinated group will resist & fight among themselves & they will lined up to take the vaccinations to gain their way back to he main island all for the sake of getting those "benefits & privileges"

 

Who provide them the money and everything? 

[single42]

1 minute ago, Kimochi said:

Who provide them the money and everything? 

 

what do u think...?? 

[Kimochi]

2 minutes ago, single42 said:

 

what do u think...?? 

And you thinks its government money? 

[Guest Wtf]

2 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

http://chng.it/TSTRLSv4nH

 

 

2 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

@Derren and @PlayersGroup were kind enough to take the time to explain to you in detail where you were incorrect and to try to help you understand better the reality of vaccines and the situation in Singapore.
 

And your response is to ignore all their efforts and to just post some chitchat messages and spread rumors… Do you honestly believe that Jo Kach (whoever that is - I guess someone you have never met and just found online in an antivax chat group) had not one, not two, but “a FEW friends who passed on WITHIN 2 weeks of the second jab due to cardiac arrest”.? Come on, let’s get real here and stick to the facts please….
 

Or at least make the rumors you spread look a bit more credible - I am surprised Jo Kach didn’t mention something about a unicorn or dragon. 

[PlayersGroup]

2 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

What is the weight of evidence? No details no nothing, which hospital where how when? Did the guy have other conditions or a proper autopsy? The less checkable details there are, the more we need to ask if it's real. Long before vaccines, we have already heard of people having sudden death. That it happened around the same time doesn't necessarily mean it's related. If we eat a banana in the morning n meet with traffic accident afterwards, it may not be related?

 

He says she says, there's a lot of these on the internet, they can be used to take note to keep minds open to possibilities but not as concrete proof. Granted your Yahoo News source wasn't a great source compared to other person's, but still you tried to quote one that can be checked, it is not from some obscure source. You did quote from a virologist, a Nobel laureate no less, he's not without controversy but at least you quoted from a relevant source, so I respect you for that. Didn't you say you don't peddle false info? Good job, but improve your sources, continue to live up to it.

 

That Nobel laureate, do a Google n you can fact check what exactly he did or did not say. We don't have to believe wholesale whatever we read at first glance.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/05/27/fact-check-false-claim-vaccines-attributed-nobel-prize-winner/7435564002/

Edited July 28, 2021 by PlayersGroup

[Guest Base Rate Bias]

The Yahoo article quoted by lookseelooksee is an example of Base Rate Bias which several readers tried to point out to him.  Interestingly this happened in Israel too. Prof Levy, DG Ministry of Health, Israel mentioned that 40-50% of new Covid cases were vaccinated.  Sounds like the Yahoo article ?

 

 

Base Rate Bias

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-infected-are-vaccinated

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

The statistic that’s concerning most (and that’s in the news) is a detail the Director General of the Health Ministry of Israel (Professor Chevy Levy) said during a radio interview. When asked how many of the new COVID19 cases had been vaccinated, Levy said that, “we are looking at a rate of 40 to 50%”.

 

This must mean the Delta variant is escaping our vaccines, right? When I started digging into the numbers, though, this might not be as alarming as it seems.

 

Base rate bias

This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

 

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.

Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:

• 100 adult community

• 4 COVID19 cases

• 50% of cases were among the vaccinated

It would look something like this:

With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

 

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…

1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?

2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?

3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.

Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.

[PlayersGroup]

1 hour ago, Guest Base Rate Bias said:

...

Base rate bias

This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

 

...

 

With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

 

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

 

We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…

1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?

2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?

3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.

Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.

 

Thanks for sharing. Learned something new. Reading n understanding data in its whole takes time n effort, and even researchers misread.

 

So long as there is a commitment to the principles of getting quality info and reducing bias consciously, it is possible to discuss and improve reasoning, which is why I do try to engage lookseelooksee since he did make some effort n sense, better than some anonymous incoherent posts who are just obsessed with spreading negativity n politics.

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by PlayersGroup

[Derren]

1 hour ago, Guest Base Rate Bias said:

 

Bottom Line:

 

Intuitively, suppose a population of 100 was 100% fully vaccinated and exposed to the virus, resulting in 10 infection cases. You are technically not wrong to say 100% of the infection cases have been fully vaccinated and it sounds scary, as if the vaccine doesn't work.

 

But actually the infection breakthrough rate is only 10% (i.e. only 10% of the vaccinated were infected). The efficacy rate against infection is 90% in this scenario.

 

(Guest Base Rate Bias, please correct me if I understood you wrongly.)

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by Derren

[Guest Wtf]

40 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

http://chng.it/TSTRLSv4nH

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

http://chng.it/TSTRLSv4nH

 

srsly, what is the point of reposting some random he said she said posts you have found online?
 

Why not engage with all of the excellent replies that @Derren @PlayersGroup and guest base rate have patiently shared with you? 

 

Or are you now just trolling this chat?  

[PlayersGroup]

Guest Wtf,

 

I think if it's incoherent, no need to respond la. If there are even small valid points, responding will let everyone learn. 

 

Looksee,

 

1 hour ago, lookseelooksee said:

"以毒攻毒", 请大家注意, 第二个字是毒, 不是什么好东西, 千万要小心, 心脏只有一个, 生命只有一条!

 

生命因为宝贵所以要珍惜。 头脑也是肩上只有一个，要在有生之年锻炼脑筋，善用深思。不要以讹传讹，不然会浪费，也可能误人误己。

 

We wait for you to live up to the expectations you set for yourself, that you do not peddle fake information. If you prefer to spend time posting random info, there's nothing we can do for you also, and less people will listen to you

[single42]

This debate / discussion ain't going anywhere.. very simple.. since many people had created a petition online again asking the government not to get them vaccinated.. i would like to sit back and watch what the government would do for those who opted out on the vaccination & what are the fringe benefits & privileges that those of us who are vaccinated gonna get & enjoy. 

 

Since minister Lawrence Wong already dangled the "carrot"  or the "stick" method in front of the media.. i would really love to see the outcome.   

 

End of Discussion

Edited July 28, 2021 by single42

[jeremy409854]

2 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

I'm sorry to say this but base rate fallacy/bias only fools the unwary and the mathematically weak.

 

Let me explain base rate fallacy/bias very simply. Suppose 80% of the population of a country is vaccinated, and suppose 50% of infections for the past 4 weeks occur among the vaccinated. 50% might seem like a lot but if you compare it to the fact that 80% of the population has been vaccinated, you realise that vaccination does indeed lower one's chances of getting COVID.

 

But if 80% of the population has been vaccinated, yet 80% of the infected cases for the past 4 weeks are vaccinated, then am I not entitled to say vaccination doesn't reduce one bit my chances of getting COVID? Of course I would be so entitled!

 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vaccinated-people-singapore-three-quarters-071043455.html

 

 

75% of Singapore's population is vaccinated. 75% of infections are vaccinated. Therefore vaccination does absolutely nothing to lessen one's chances of getting COVID.

 

In fact, you can even argue that vaccination increases one's chances of getting COVID, based on the statistics in the Yahoo article. We all know that Singapore is ramping up vaccination: tens of thousands of people are being vaccinated everyday throughout the island. This means that the percentage of the vaccinated population 4 weeks prior is less than 75%. Let's assume the percentage at the start of said 4-week period is 65% and the percentage at the end thereof is 75%. Let us further assume the pace of vaccination to have been constant throughout. So we have a mean/average vaccination percentage of 70% during this period. 70% vaccination yet 75% of infections are vaccinated! Wow! Truly stunning!

 

This is why the government has stopped giving the breakdown of infected cases into fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated, because it spoils their narrative that "vaccination good, non-vaccination bad".

LOL clearly you are mathematically weak as you couldn't even understand properly the explanation in the Yahoo article. What you say is totally NOT what the article says.

[PlayersGroup]

Lookseelooksee ah, your maths is not correct. Reread Guest Base Rate Bias's post again, especially the paragraph in bold, and relook at the charts. If you need, please ask someone good at maths to explain in person (with safe distancing) too. I think over a bulletin board like BW is not easy to explain for you.

 

The percentages you mentioned may look numerically the same, but when you compare them, they do not refer to the same thing, to compare apples with oranges is not correct.

Edited July 28, 2021 by PlayersGroup

[Guest Wtf]

4 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

I'm sorry to say this but base rate fallacy/bias only fools the unwary and the mathematically weak.

 

Let me explain base rate fallacy/bias very simply. Suppose 80% of the population of a country is vaccinated, and suppose 50% of infections for the past 4 weeks occur among the vaccinated. 50% might seem like a lot but if you compare it to the fact that 80% of the population has been vaccinated, you realise that vaccination does indeed lower one's chances of getting COVID.

 

But if 80% of the population has been vaccinated, yet 80% of the infected cases for the past 4 weeks are vaccinated, then am I not entitled to say vaccination doesn't reduce one bit my chances of getting COVID? Of course I would be so entitled!

 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/vaccinated-people-singapore-three-quarters-071043455.html

 

 

75% of Singapore's population is vaccinated. 75% of infections are vaccinated. Therefore vaccination does absolutely nothing to lessen one's chances of getting COVID.

 

In fact, you can even argue that vaccination increases one's chances of getting COVID, based on the statistics in the Yahoo article. We all know that Singapore is ramping up vaccination: tens of thousands of people are being vaccinated everyday throughout the island. This means that the percentage of the vaccinated population 4 weeks prior is less than 75%. Let's assume the percentage at the start of said 4-week period is 65% and the percentage at the end thereof is 75%. Let us further assume the pace of vaccination to have been constant throughout. So we have a mean/average vaccination percentage of 70% during this period. 70% vaccination yet 75% of infections are vaccinated! Wow! Truly stunning!

 

This is why the government has stopped giving the breakdown of infected cases into fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated, because it spoils their narrative that "vaccination good, non-vaccination bad".

Even the one source you keep referring to does not agree with you. You are cherry picking to suit your arguments, so let me help you out here. Here is more of the article:

 

There were only seven severe cases requiring oxygen support and six of them were unvaccinated and one was partially vaccinated, the health ministry said.

"There is continuing evidence that vaccination helps to prevent serious disease when one gets infected," the ministry said, adding all of the fully vaccinated and infected people showed no symptoms or mild symptoms.

Experts said infections reported by vaccinated people do not mean vaccines are ineffective.

"As more and more people are vaccinated in Singapore, we will see more infections happening amongst vaccinated people," Teo Yik Ying, dean of the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

"It is important to always compare it against the proportion of people who remain unvaccinated.... Suppose Singapore achieves a rate of 100% fully vaccinated... then all infections will stem from the vaccinated people and none from the unvaccinated."

 

 

[Guest Wtf]

2 hours ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

Point out the fallacy in my reasoning then. Bet you can't.

the fallacy in your reasoning is most clearly shown by this chart, which has already been shared with you: 

[Guest Wtf]

34 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

Reproducing charts isn't explaining.

 

26 minutes ago, lookseelooksee said:

 

I said vaccination doesn't lower one's chances of getting COVID, based on the statistics mentioned in the Yahoo article.

 

Don't just reproduce chunks of the article. Explain where my reasoning is wrong. Bet you can't.

Please tell me, from the chart, which group has the higher chance of being infected? I can spell it out for you: it is the group where 2 in 17 are infected (unvaccinated), compared to the group where 2 in 83 (vaccinated) are infected. 
 

i am not sure how to simplify this further for you. Maybe someone else has more patience to try. 

[gc0805]

1 hour ago, Guest Wtf said:

the fallacy in your reasoning is most clearly shown by this chart, which has already been shared with you: 

 

I applaud you for your excellent chart!

But sadly, there is none so blind as one who refuses to see.

You've tried your best. 

 

 

 

 

[Derren]

75% of the general population is infected.

75% of those who are infected are vaccinated. 

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/askst-why-are-more-vaccinated-people-getting-covid-19

 

The explanation given by the experts is that the sub-population which visited the KTV and work at the fishery port and wet markets tend to be 20-60 years old. This group can be "up to 80% vaccinated".

 

To be frank, I myself am not entirely satisfied by this explanation.

 

Perhaps the nature of the activities and the way they are carried out at the KTV and the ports/wet markets make the virus very transmissible.

 

Hopefully, more data will come in.

 

 

[Guest Guest]

This is a money making company for phizer.They knew 2 jab not enough.Now need one more jab so company can make more money.Similiar as Hiv .The company already have the cure for Hiv.But refuse to reveal the truth so can make more and more money from public who need it on daily basic.

[rowers]

The vaccinated ones may have a wrong perception that they are free from covid infection. In reality, regardless of any sort of vaccinations, there are no 100% guaranteed that you will be fully protected, that is why there's always a small number of people out there that will catch the virus. It's only a matter of how strong your body's immune system is to protect you from falling extremely sick.

 

Vaccinated people are sometimes the scariest because they start to lax and become complacent as compared to those who are and maybe unable to get vaccinated.

 

COVID aside, if you are vaccinated against flu, good protection. but you are still exposed to different sort of flu virus that will attack your body. The only thing we can do is still to get vaccinated and protect ourselves and people around us so we don't succumb to serious illness.

Edited July 29, 2021 by rowers

[Guest guest]

2 hours ago, rowers said:

The vaccinated ones may have a wrong perception that they are free from covid infection. In reality, regardless of any sort of vaccinations, there are no 100% guaranteed that you will be fully protected, that is why there's always a small number of people out there that will catch the virus. It's only a matter of how strong your body's immune system is to protect you from falling extremely sick.

 

Vaccinated people are sometimes the scariest because they start to lax and become complacent as compared to those who are and maybe unable to get vaccinated.

 

COVID aside, if you are vaccinated against flu, good protection. but you are still exposed to different sort of flu virus that will attack your body. The only thing we can do is still to get vaccinated and protect ourselves and people around us so we don't succumb to serious illness.

Could be govt gives out message that people thought after vaccinated they are free to do anything, since even kanna covid their condition is just like common flu, mild and well. Such message and data would result people may misinterpret it wrongly. This is why our covid cases went up much higher even our vaccination rate is higher as well.

[PlayersGroup]

46 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

Could be govt gives out message that people thought after vaccinated they are free to do anything, since even kanna covid their condition is just like common flu, mild and well. Such message and data would result people may misinterpret it wrongly. This is why our covid cases went up much higher even our vaccination rate is higher as well.

 

I think it's ok to critique govt policy, but must be fair also. I dun think govt ever said "vaccinated are free to do anything". 

 

They said: Heightened alert. Get Vaccinated. Observe safe distancing n be careful. Once we have high vaccination rate, then it's safer to reopen again. 

 

As for companies like Pfizer making profits, of course they are. But when we start saying they are in conspiracy etc etc, then it's better to have proof. If no proof, don't anyhow say yet. Doesn't mean you are wrong, just means don't just believe anything because we find something online.

[Guest guest]

1 hour ago, PlayersGroup said:

 

I think it's ok to critique govt policy, but must be fair also. I dun think govt ever said "vaccinated are free to do anything". 

 

They said: Heightened alert. Get Vaccinated. Observe safe distancing n be careful. Once we have high vaccination rate, then it's safer to reopen again. 

 

As for companies like Pfizer making profits, of course they are. But when we start saying they are in conspiracy etc etc, then it's better to have proof. If no proof, don't anyhow say yet. Doesn't mean you are wrong, just means don't just believe anything because we find something online.

Govt indeed never say after vaccinated are free to do anything. But the measures and some of the things they say, some people would be easily misinterpret. The classic one is they always telling people to go for jab as after vaccinate, low chance and low risk to get covid, if you are not vaccinated, high chance get vaccine. And after vaccine your condition would be mild or even no symptoms. Such message some people would misread that vaccination can do wonders, so no need to scare of covid. This is why the cases are going up instead of coming down, after more people are vaccinated.

[leo yok loo]

30 minutes ago, Guest guest said:

Govt indeed never say after vaccinated are free to do anything. But the measures and some of the things they say, some people would be easily misinterpret. The classic one is they always telling people to go for jab as after vaccinate, low chance and low risk to get covid, if you are not vaccinated, high chance get vaccine. And after vaccine your condition would be mild or even no symptoms. Such message some people would misread that vaccination can do wonders, so no need to scare of covid. This is why the cases are going up instead of coming down, after more people are vaccinated.

I agree with you. 

But interestingly, someone said after vaxx...geylang also can open..so funny.