All on China & China's Political Discussions (Compiled)

[obgdcriv]

Paul Krugman warns China is headed for a 'very nasty fall' as Xi Jinping sounds more like a Republican than a communist

Filip De Mott

Filip De Mott September 7, 2023·3 min read

 

 

 

China's President Xi Jinping attends a welcoming ceremony for Italian President Sergio Mattarella (not in picture) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China February 22, 2017.REUTERS/Jason Lee

• China has reached the limit of what it can do to stave off an economic crisis, Paul Krugman wrote.

• It needs to embrace stimulus, but Beijing's ideology is getting in the way.

• Despite being a communist country, leaders seem to disapprove of welfare and consumer aid.
   

If China hopes to turn its economic fortunes around, it will have to be more faithful to its communist roots, Paul Krugman said.

"China's an odd place ideologically. It's not actually a communist society by any normal measure," the Nobel economist said in a New York Times audio essay. "On one side, they don't like to just giving people money. They don't like people being financially independent, because they still want the government to be in control."

 

But Beijing's refusal to provide its consumers and businesses with some kind of aid, such as through a large stimulus program, means that its current economic challenges are free to expand.

 

Deflation, massive debt, falling growth, and rising unemployment have all been major themes in China this year, as consumers have largely limited spending. Though this is the outcome of necessity, Krugman also cited a strong savings culture stemming from Chinese history.

 

In response to these issues, both investors and analysts have called for a stimulus solution. Instead, Chinese leadership has opted for smaller support measures, most of which have had little impact. These range from interest rate cuts to easing restrictions on property purchases.

 

"China is facing a major economic crisis, and they've run to the limits of the things that's been doing to keep its economy afloat," Krugman said. "Unless the Chinese government is willing to face up to the need to do something very different, then China is headed for a very nasty fall."

 

Some of the government's wariness around stimulus is also a reflection of President Xi Jinping's own ideology. Despite leading the Communist Party of China, Krugman says the authoritarian leader seems more aligned with a conservative Republican, citing how Xi has condemned the "dangers of welfarism."

 

While this "puritanical attitude" has not been an issue during periods of high growth, Beijing has to allow its populace some spending independence if it wants to revive its economy, Krugman argues.

If not, the economic crisis has the potential to turn into a political one, as China's unemployed citizens begin to doubt their leadership. As Beijing's legitimacy comes from having overseen seismic growth in the past few decades, an abrupt end to that trend will cause problems.

 

"China's proud that it has a regime that is at a deep level, hypocritical. It preaches Marxism and equality and the coming communist utopia, and practices rapacious, highly unequal capitalism," Krugman said.

 

(Mod: Repost above article from Business Insider)

[passinthenight]

Interesting times ahead for this mob.

Lots of Companies leaving for greener pastures, like Vietnam.

Their housing/real estate market is crumbling.

Their Wolf warrior international press releases and covid was when it all started to go down hill for them.

[Guest Collapse]

The Coming Collapse of China ver. 2023

 

Sounds familiar from decades ago, and it never happens

[Steve5380]

 

One has to marvel at the enormous display of wealth in China with its amazing surge of modern infrastructure,  and wonder if Xi Jinping is obsessed with an one-upmanship of his country over the rest of the world.   One can see it in videos like this one:

 

 

 

This might have been fine during the meteoric economic growth of the last decades,  but what about now that this grow has stopped?  The trillions spent in this splurges of technological glitz and shininess...  how will this help the millions of unemployed and those who invested all their money in some real estate that now unusable because it was left unfinished?  What good are these monstrous architectural wonders in the big cities when simple modest high-rises  that should have become people's homes are... wasted?     

[Guest Fundamentally]

Those three characteristics of the capitalist international economy—greed, corruption, and a desire for the unnecessary—help drive nation to flourish.Because the Chinese understand the value of saving money for rainy days, their economic growth has slowed somewhat, which is not entired a bad indication. China's wealth will be preserved for urgent matters like building more defence force...etc.    The same cannot be said for a bankrupt America who now cannot even afford the basic for Americans and its civil servants and have to closed down public service offices in order to borrow more money from other parts of the world, especially from China and Japan. 

[singalion]

My first point on this topic is that the article is probably not from a very reliable source and I sense the intent to simply bash China by the headline.

The intention it follows seems more to make the American people to believe into something that might not become true.

It is opinion building.

 

Newsbreak media is not known to be a very reliable media source.

 

The authors took some lines from Krugman and then to build on by ignoring the main points brought forward by Krugman.

 

Therefore, I read it with some pinch of salt.

[Guest Love Abs]

4 hours ago, Guest Fundamentally said:

Those three characteristics of the capitalist international economy—greed, corruption, and a desire for the unnecessary—help drive nation to flourish.Because the Chinese understand the value of saving money for rainy days, their economic growth has slowed somewhat, which is not entired a bad indication. China's wealth will be preserved for urgent matters like building more defence force...etc.    The same cannot be said for a bankrupt America who now cannot even afford the basic for Americans and its civil servants and have to closed down public service offices in order to borrow more money from other parts of the world, especially from China and Japan. 

 

 

It remains to be seen . 

 

I am just glad I hold non China I.C. nor its citizenship.

 

Still got room to move.

[singalion]

4 hours ago, Guest Fundamentally said:

Those three characteristics of the capitalist international economy—greed, corruption, and a desire for the unnecessary—help drive nation to flourish.Because the Chinese understand the value of saving money for rainy days, their economic growth has slowed somewhat, which is not entired a bad indication. China's wealth will be preserved for urgent matters like building more defence force...etc.    The same cannot be said for a bankrupt America who now cannot even afford the basic for Americans and its civil servants and have to closed down public service offices in order to borrow more money from other parts of the world, especially from China and Japan. 

 

This is fundamentally wrong.

 

I m not sure if you meant with greed, corruption etc the Western world or talked about China.

 

It was the Chinese government under Xi Jinping who scrapped the opportunities (this even before Covid) for Chinese people to invest. Take Forrest City.

The government disallowed monies to be spent outside of China.

 

The general decline in the economy in China is a bad sign for China as it promoted itself as the power machine in Asia.

 

I personally don't think that "saving money for rainy days" is something within the Chinese characteristics. Re-investing any monies to increase wealth seems more the nature in this country.

 

The Chinese nationalist spirit reminds me more of the Germans after the WWI, who thought that the world pulled them down and treated them bad. China intends to be a country proud of it's achievements and getting back to the glory of the 7th to the 15th century.

But the government of China has been playing on this sentiment for too long already, I m not sure they still buy it.

 

While some journalists in the West may exaggerate but all in all the current economic decline of China is a hit into the face of Xi Jinping as he promised that China will shine.

 

The biggest threat to China is always that people get upset and stroll onto the streets to protest.

 

I wouldn't mind such if it for once and all lead to a regime change and ousted the dictators.

The CCP and Xi Jinping is surely not a benefit to China and the world.

 

Note on the points covered on the US:

I ignore the points on America, as the US is not bankrupt. Tell me one government in the world that doesn't spend more than it earns and takes up loans? As if Americans are starving to death. The point on the US reflects from the post that the person didn't apprehend certain economic things and on government spending/ public budgets and it sounds to me a bit too sweetie pie... the potential government shutdown in the US has nothing to do with the private wealth in the US.  The whole chapter on the US in that post evidences the intent by the Guest to paint China in a glorifying light while making the US to something negative. This seems much too much of wishful thinking not reflected by the real facts.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by singalion

[singalion]

4 hours ago, Guest Fundamentally said:

Those three characteristics of the capitalist international economy—greed, corruption, and a desire for the unnecessary—help drive nation to flourish.Because the Chinese understand the value of saving money for rainy days, their economic growth has slowed somewhat, which is not entired a bad indication. China's wealth will be preserved for urgent matters like building more defence force...etc.    The same cannot be said for a bankrupt America who now cannot even afford the basic for Americans and its civil servants and have to closed down public service offices in order to borrow more money from other parts of the world, especially from China and Japan. 

 

 

I don't think spending too much into defence reaps benefits for the citizens of China.

The intention by China to spend huge amounts into the defence aims to fend off any potential attacks and also to threaten direct neighbours in opposing China's aggressive invasions in non Chinese territories.

 

This direction is also in clear conflict to China's promotion as a peaceful country.

 

Is China on the way to become a second Japan (before WWI)???

 

 

[Steve5380]

7 hours ago, singalion said:

 

The government disallowed monies to be spent outside of China.

 

The Chinese nationalist spirit reminds me more of the Germans after the WWI, who thought that the world pulled them down and treated them bad. China intends to be a country proud of it's achievements and getting back to the glory of the 7th to the 15th century.

But the government of China has been playing on this sentiment for too long already, I m not sure they still buy it.

 

 

You wrote very well about exaggerated nationalism like the nations of the Axis had coming into WWII.  Why should one nation be better and more deserving than the others?  We Americans also suffer of that, which is pushed by many politicians.  "The American dream, ha ha".  Xi Jinping seems to have the same ambition of Putin to restore the greatness of the Chinese empire...

 

You also mentioned one malevolent restriction of the totalitarian government:   controlling how the Chinese people can spend their money.  It should be THEIRS to invest in what they like!

[obgdcriv]

On 10/2/2023 at 9:12 AM, passinthenight said:

Interesting times ahead for this mob.

Lots of Companies leaving for greener pastures, like Vietnam.

Their housing/real estate market is crumbling.

Their Wolf warrior international press releases and covid was when it all started to go down hill for them.

 

Investing in China now is like investing in Russia in the months before Russia invaded Ukraine.

[Steve5380]

For Steve the engineer, watching the following video is like enjoying a paradise of technology!  Astounding!

 

 

But one hears also about much unemployment in China,  about young idealistic Chinese graduating as engineers but not finding work as such,  having to resign themselves to do some menial work to survive.  This brings the question:  who designs and supervises these mega projects?  Could they be done by Western companies doing big business in China,  which just puts the money and a cheap labor force?  

 

Please don't get angry if I make the same question about Singapore:  the construction at Changi airport, the Marina Bay Sands, the excavation and construction of new MRT lines, and many future megaprojects...  who designs and supervises them?   Also large foreign companies hired by the government?   I wish the best opportunities for the Singaporean engineers, and especially if they are gay, which is a sign of good intelligence.   Your government should facilitate you guys to train for some time in Europe and the US to become competent in megaprojects,  and then demand that the contracted megacompanies employ local engineering and technical skills.

[Guest Guest]

I can tell that the media has done a good job of shaping the views of boomers.

[singalion]

You meant because the boomers have less command of Mandarin language and read English language news?

[Guest America]

On 10/3/2023 at 1:55 PM, singalion said:

My first point on this topic is that the article is probably not from a very reliable source and I sense the intent to simply bash China by the headline.

The intention it follows seems more to make the American people to believe into something that might not become true.

It is opinion building.

 

Newsbreak media is not known to be a very reliable media source.

 

The authors took some lines from Krugman and then to build on by ignoring the main points brought forward by Krugman.

 

Therefore, I read it with some pinch of salt.

I have the same feeling too. But ironically I might be wrong that isn't it America is heading the same way too. Alot of countries are wanting to replace the dollar with their own currency. Not very good with economy. Meaning no need to use dollar when dealing with each other. 

 

Recently my paypal has been hacked. Long story short, there is a disputement fees I have to settle. 8 USD. When I contact them, they change the disputement fees to 40 smthg USD saying because of conversion things. 

 

 

[Steve5380]

China has another problem that will have a big negative effect in its future:  brain drain.   Here is a good article from the New York Times,  recommended if you can read their website:  "China is suffering a Brain Drain. The US isn't exploiting it":

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/business/china-brain-drain.html

 

They went to the best universities in China and in the West. They lived middle-class lives in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen and worked for technology companies at the center of China’s tech rivalry with the United States.

Now they are living and working in North America, Europe, Japan, Australia — and just about any developed country.

Chinese — from young people to entrepreneurs — are voting with their feet to escape political oppression, bleak economic prospects and often grueling work cultures. Increasingly, the exodus includes tech professionals and other well-educated middle-class Chinese.

“I left China because I didn’t like the social and political environment,” said Chen Liangshi, 36, who worked on artificial intelligence projects at Baidu and Alibaba, two of China’s biggest tech companies, before leaving the country in early 2020. He made the decision after China abolished the term limit for the presidency in 2018, a move that allowed its top leader, Xi Jinping, to stay in power indefinitely.

 

“I will not return to China until it becomes democratic,” he said, “and the people can live without fear.” He now works for Meta in London.

I interviewed 14 Chinese professionals, including Mr. Chen, and exchanged messages with dozens more, about why they decided to uproot their lives and how they started over in foreign countries. Most of them worked in China’s tech industry, which was surprising because the pay is high.

But I was most surprised to find that most of them had moved to countries other than the United States. China is facing a brain drain, and the United States isn’t taking advantage of it.

....

As Mr. Xi increasingly ruled by fear and propaganda, the social and political atmosphere grew tense and suffocating. Mr. Fu said he had become estranged from his parents after arguing about the necessity of the strict pandemic restrictions, which he objected to. He barely spoke with anyone and lived in a political closet. Late last year, he quit and applied for a work visa in Canada. Now, he and his wife are on their way to Calgary, Alberta.

Most of the emigrants I spoke to, explaining why they did not pick the United States, cited America’s complicated and unpredictable process for applying for visas and permanent residence status.

The number of student visas granted by the United States to Chinese nationals, long a starting point for promising future emigrants, began to fall in 2016, as relations between the countries deteriorated. In the first six months of 2023, Britain granted more than 100,000 study visas to Chinese nationals, while the United States granted roughly 65,000 F1 student visas.

Mr. Fu said he hadn’t considered the United States because he studied at a university that is on Washington’s sanction list and he worked at a defense company — both could make it tough for him to pass the U.S. government’s security screening procedure. But he said he would eventually like to work in the country, which he idolizes.

Some tech professionals chose Canada and European countries over the United States because of their better social benefits, work-life balance and gun control laws.

...

[Steve5380]

I hope that what is headed in China for a very nasty fall is not the country itself,  but the CCP, Chinese Communist Party, and its leader Xi Jinping.

I really like the country and its habitants,  and if it were not for the CCP,  I would soon visit Shanghai for the first time.  Views like the following attract me:

 

 

 

The picture on the cover of the video is a fantasy, of course.  But Shanghai has some great interchanges.   I am used to such roads since I live very close to the largest interchange in Texas, at the junction in Houston of highways 59 and 610 West,  and I drive it several times a week without problems. 

[Guest Guest]

8 hours ago, singalion said:

You meant because the boomers have less command of Mandarin language and read English language news?

 

you describing a boomer like you? 

[singalion]

16 hours ago, Guest America said:

I have the same feeling too. But ironically I might be wrong that isn't it America is heading the same way too. Alot of countries are wanting to replace the dollar with their own currency. Not very good with economy. Meaning no need to use dollar when dealing with each other. 

 

Recently my paypal has been hacked. Long story short, there is a disputement fees I have to settle. 8 USD. When I contact them, they change the disputement fees to 40 smthg USD saying because of conversion things. 

 

 

 

The question is: Does the world require one currency that has monopolistic value in certain matters.

 

My response is : No.

[obgdcriv]

'This is their last decade': This famed geopolitical analyst says China will collapse in the next 10 years — here are 3 key numbers that could support his shocking forecast

 

Is China heading for a total collapse: political, economic and demographic?

Conventional wisdom says no way. It boasts a massive military and an iron grip on its people, and owns a whopping $870 billion in U.S. debt.

What’s more, American consumers are addicted to its goods. Apple makes smartphones there. Take a look at the clothes in your closet. Where are many of them made these days? Thought so.

While that’s no recipe for demise, some people would argue that China will soon be hanging on by a thread. That includes geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, whose new forecast makes a case few would otherwise consider.

Zeihan raised eyebrows in a January interview with Joe Rogan, in which he predicted the People’s Republic would collapse in 10 years.

"This is their last decade," Zeihan said of China and its economic success.

Whether it’s astute analysis or souped-up hype — dire predictions can raise a pundit’s profile and a podcater’s ratings, after all — there has been debate about China’s future. Part of the dicussion has been whether its trade and family-planning policies have undermined the goal of sharing the world’s economic stage with the United States.

Whatever their stance or opinion of Zeihan, there's little doubt a Chinese collapse would trigger unprecedented global volatility and a massive rebalancing of the world order. We may be a long way from Zeihan’s prediction about the fate of the nation, but with so much at stake it’s worth reviewing the numbers.

 

The 9.9% erosion: China’s struggling economy

From multiple and significant angles, China’s economy is under heavy strain. In particular, the nation experienced rare civil unrest due to its strict zero-COVID policy, which locked down vast sections of the economy, lowered industrial output and curbed consumer spending.

Some important metrics offer evidence of an economic contraction. For example, the country’s exports dropped 9.9% from the previous year in December 2022.

The nation’s debt has risen rapidly over the past decade, particularly among state-owned enterprises and local governments. That could hinder China's ability to limit future economic shocks. What’s more, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and other countries have added to the uncertainty.

China’s economic headwinds could have major impact. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy might create new price pressures in the U.S. if its export prices rise — and hurt the demand for U.S. products.

 

The 800 million population puzzle: aging out

As for its population, China suffers from a disadvantage in its demographics.

China’s population is getting older — fast. As its people age and retire, fewer working-age individuals are around to support them. The United Nations forecasts the nation’s population — now roughly 1.4 billion — to fall below 800 million by the year 2100.

The nation’s one-child policy, in place for more than three decades before it ended in 2016, exacerbated the problem and today threatens long-term economic prospects. Citing steep drops in birth rates, China in 2021 began to let couples have up to three children. Will it increase the workforce? Right now, it’s impossible to say.

 

Is 20.4% too much? Trade’s share of GDP

China's economy relies heavily on international trade; exports accounted for around 20% of its gross domestic product in 2021, according to the World Bank.

But trade dependence makes China vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and trade policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed that reliance when demand for Chinese products dropped.

China is actively seeking to shift towards domestic consumption to drive growth. Its electric car manufacturers such as Nio and Xpeng have shown promise in leading the way. But a larger domestic shift overall will take time and require significant changes in China's economic structure and policies.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-years-left-famed-geopolitical-160000503.html

[Sweetie Pie]

1 hour ago, obgdcriv said:

'This is their last decade': This famed geopolitical analyst says China will collapse in the next 10 years — here are 3 key numbers that could support his shocking forecast

 

When it comes to population aging, what happens to China will likewise happen to India and around the world.   Contrary to India, China can leverage its talented workforce and technological advancements to support its long-term growth, prosperity and citizens welfare.   On the other hand, India caste system which also caused widespread poverty and made it difficult to improve skilled labor,  India will face huge welfare problems when the Country starts to age.   Riots between the rich and the poor will further polarize the nation and we haven't discussed whether India can even match China as a superpower 30 years later.   As for America, it maintained its population through extensive immigration, which came at a high cost in the form of crime, high unemployment, and the current political unrest.  

 

30 years ago, America said China will collapse.  20 years ago, America said China will collapse,  10 years ago, America said the same thing.  Now...are we tired of the Western medias yet?

Edited October 5, 2023 by Sweetie Pie

[obgdcriv]

[Sweetie Pie]

1 hour ago, obgdcriv said:

What the China did on the left picture, is to keep America safe on the right picture.  You know, terrorists are everywhere. If terrorists escaped China "concentration camp" and sneaked into to America soil, expect more planes crashing into tall buildings.   I remember after 911 incidents, Junior Bush was clamoring China for help to fight terrorism acorss borders.  Now that America is kept sound and safe, it began to turn its bridge against China for rounding up terrorists in Xingjiang?

[singalion]

On 10/5/2023 at 8:26 PM, Sweetie Pie said:

As for America, it maintained its population through extensive immigration, which came at a high cost in the form of crime, high unemployment

 

The US is having record low unemployment for the past 2 1/2 years, not sure where you get your info from. 

 

But as most, your posts are just a summary of your opinions but hardly anything backed by facts. 

 

 

Quote:

 

US employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience

October 6, 2023

 

Friday's report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, not far above a half-century low. The job market has defied an array of threats this year, notably high inflation and a rapid series of Fed interest rate hikes that were intended to conquer it.

 

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-inflation-rates-economy-federal-reserve-unemployment-8950494bcfcc717f7e6c18bc19ecaf6e

 

 

[Steve5380]

2 hours ago, singalion said:

 

The US is having record low unemployment for the past 2 1/2 years, not sure where you get your info from. 

 

But as most, your posts are just a summary of your opinions but hardly anything backed by facts. 

 

 

Quote:

 

US employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience

October 6, 2023

 

Friday's report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, not far above a half-century low. The job market has defied an array of threats this year, notably high inflation and a rapid series of Fed interest rate hikes that were intended to conquer it.

 

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-inflation-rates-economy-federal-reserve-unemployment-8950494bcfcc717f7e6c18bc19ecaf6e

 

 

 

Singalion,  you are such a strong defender of thread protocol !!   Maybe you should move your post here to the thread about USA Politics?

[Sweetie Pie]

8 hours ago, Steve5380 said:

 

Singalion,  you are such a strong defender of thread protocol !!   Maybe you should move your post here to the thread about USA Politics?

Hope not.  We should try to maintain an utmost integrity of this BW by forbiding @Steve5380 and @singalion for oversatuating here with lies.   The lesser we talk about America the better. 

[Guest Guest]

18 hours ago, singalion said:

 

The US is having record low unemployment for the past 2 1/2 years, not sure where you get your info from. 

 

But as most, your posts are just a summary of your opinions but hardly anything backed by facts. 

 

 

Quote:

 

US employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience

October 6, 2023

 

Friday's report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, not far above a half-century low. The job market has defied an array of threats this year, notably high inflation and a rapid series of Fed interest rate hikes that were intended to conquer it.

 

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-inflation-rates-economy-federal-reserve-unemployment-8950494bcfcc717f7e6c18bc19ecaf6e

 

 

 

It is almost ridiculous for anyone to even talk about the current "record low unemployment" in USA right now, when the entire reason for that is due to the super high inflation in USA at this moment of time. The Phillips Curve is a basic fundamental graph taught in any economics classes. Learn some basic economics before you come here to spew your garbage, will you? I hope you will be proud of yourself if high inflation rate forces your grandfather and grandmother out of their wheelchairs to work, just so that they can put enough food on the family table.  Yes, that is what it means when you have low unemployment rates in high inflation environment. Happy now, stupid? Stop making a mockery of your intelligence all over this forum, will you? 

 

  

[singalion]

The guest here who tried to make a point by quoting the Phillips curve unfortunately demonstrated once again that he has no clue of economics. 

 

The Phillips curve has no longer any relevance in economics as it has been proven as incorrect. 

 

Quote:

Phillips curve: Debunked

Economists believe that the Phillips curve theory isn’t well thought out, or even that it’s completely untrue.

 

Second the US is since April 2023 no longer in something what you consider a "super high" inflation phase. The inflation lowered to 3% in July 2023 in US.

 

I responded to it in detail in USA thread. 

 

This Guest is simply embarrassing himself here even further with irrelevant things demonstrating his lack of of knowledge in economics. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by singalion

[Guest Please]

On 10/5/2023 at 8:26 PM, Sweetie Pie said:

When it comes to population aging, what happens to China will likewise happen to India and around the world.   Contrary to India, China can leverage its talented workforce and technological advancements to support its long-term growth, prosperity and citizens welfare.   On the other hand, India caste system which also caused widespread poverty and made it difficult to improve skilled labor,  India will face huge welfare problems when the Country starts to age.   Riots between the rich and the poor will further polarize the nation and we haven't discussed whether India can even match China as a superpower 30 years later.   As for America, it maintained its population through extensive immigration, which came at a high cost in the form of crime, high unemployment, and the current political unrest.  

 

30 years ago, America said China will collapse.  20 years ago, America said China will collapse,  10 years ago, America said the same thing.  Now...are we tired of the Western medias yet?

If you want to talk about aging populations, you can’t really be making any serious point unless you are also considering birth rates. The Chinese birth rate per capita is significantly lower than both the USA and India. 

[Guest Guest]

To those who think that the US takes on more debt that it should and China is, by comparison, more prudent on this front; should do some fundamental research. You will be surprised.

[singalion]

That means the next bubble to explode would be in China or originating in China.

 

In particular now, if the economy is going down in China, more problems will arise, Evergrande etc, companies will start struggling or crumbling. Because public debt will lead to unpaid contractors, developers etc.

 

There was a report on the issue by Reuters just some days ago:

 

China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt

September 13, 2023

 

...

His (Wen Jiabao) plan to throw 4 trillion yuan ($555 billion), or about 13% of China’s GDP in 2008, at everything from railroads to airports contributed to a debt overhang that’s still haunting Beijing today. In the 15 years since, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to a whopping 280%, with the bulk of liabilities held by local government financial vehicles (LGFVs).

 

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. They were then contracted by regional governments to build public infrastructure, from uneconomical leisure parks and roads to slightly more cost-effective highways, subway stations and high-speed bullet trains. Many also developed land for regional governments before it was sold on to residential developers. Today those vehicles are a ticking time bomb that hampers China’s ability to spend its way out of the current economic doldrums. Economists are busy downgrading the country’s full-year growth to below the official goal of around 5%, which was already seen as modest, because an initial recovery following December’s pandemic reopening quickly faded. China is flirting with deflation as the property sector - which accounts for a quarter of GDP – has sunk and pandemic-scarred consumers and businesses hesitate to spend.

 

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-growth-is-buried-under-great-wall-debt-2023-09-13/

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by singalion

[Guest Guest]

7 hours ago, singalion said:

That means the next bubble to explode would be in China or originating in China.

 

In particular now, if the economy is going down in China, more problems will arise, Evergrande etc, companies will start struggling or crumbling. Because public debt will lead to unpaid contractors, developers etc.

 

There was a report on the issue by Reuters just some days ago:

 

China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt

September 13, 2023

 

...

His (Wen Jiabao) plan to throw 4 trillion yuan ($555 billion), or about 13% of China’s GDP in 2008, at everything from railroads to airports contributed to a debt overhang that’s still haunting Beijing today. In the 15 years since, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to a whopping 280%, with the bulk of liabilities held by local government financial vehicles (LGFVs).

 

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. They were then contracted by regional governments to build public infrastructure, from uneconomical leisure parks and roads to slightly more cost-effective highways, subway stations and high-speed bullet trains. Many also developed land for regional governments before it was sold on to residential developers. Today those vehicles are a ticking time bomb that hampers China’s ability to spend its way out of the current economic doldrums. Economists are busy downgrading the country’s full-year growth to below the official goal of around 5%, which was already seen as modest, because an initial recovery following December’s pandemic reopening quickly faded. China is flirting with deflation as the property sector - which accounts for a quarter of GDP – has sunk and pandemic-scarred consumers and businesses hesitate to spend.

 

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-growth-is-buried-under-great-wall-debt-2023-09-13/

 

 

 

$555 billion? No problem. Just force USA to repay the debt of $859.4 billion and China will have some extra to spare. How Much U.S. Debt Does China Own? (investopedia.com) 

 

And by the way, Sudan and Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is around 255% also. Why aren't you going around crying father and crying mother about their economies over here? And even Greece which is still trying to recover from its bankruptcy has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 168%, which is just a decimal point different from that of Singapore's ratio. Is Singapore on the verge of bankruptcy too? 

 

World Economic Outlook (October 2023) - General government gross debt (imf.org) 

 

Sure, no doubt China's economy is in a precarious situation right now. But bringing up things such as debt-to-GDP ratio to make yourself look smart, has only made you look STUPID.  

 

We are well aware that economics is not your forte, just like how you can fail mathematics and grammar as well. Why don't you stay out of topics which you know absolutely nothing about, which basically means why don't you just stay out of this forum completely? The only thing which you might still be able to market is your angmoh white skin for some people still suffering from some kind of postcolonial hungover. But even that is getting passe now, especially on this forum where everyone already know your type. 

 

[Guest HolyS***]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:25 PM, Steve5380 said:

I hope that what is headed in China for a very nasty fall is not the country itself,  but the CCP, Chinese Communist Party, and its leader Xi Jinping.

I really like the country and its habitants,  and if it were not for the CCP,  I would soon visit Shanghai for the first time.  Views like the following attract me:

 

 

 

The picture on the cover of the video is a fantasy, of course.  But Shanghai has some great interchanges.   I am used to such roads since I live very close to the largest interchange in Texas, at the junction in Houston of highways 59 and 610 West,  and I drive it several times a week without problems. 

 

 

Has Steve5380 gone mad ? Visiting  Shanghai  ??!! Is he showing signs of dementia ?? Has he forgotten that PRC  is a dystopian country ruled by the totalitarian CCP as highlighted by western media and US government ?? !! 

 

I can't believe he actually believe the video he posted in this thread. Has he forgotten that CCP is the great state propaganda machine. The video he posted is sophisticated cgi effects and imagery manufactured by the CCP to deceive old  fools like Steve5380. They are not real. Shanghai is actually  very run down with dilapidated infrastructure  and  crumbling buildings. There  are a lot of beggars and homeless people  on the streets of Shanghai. Crime is rampant  and if Steve5380 is not careful,  he might be shot at and beaten up by the local gangsters there.

 

He's right about the high unemployment rates  in PRC now but doesn't he read the western media news  that CCP is recruiting its citizens as spies to monitor  foreigners like him who spread hate on CCP in China so that CCP can arrest  them and place them in concentration camps in Xingjiang. 

 

At his old age, one wonders if poor Steve5380 can survive the harsh conditions in the concentration camp. For his well being, he should utterly place  his  trust in the western  media news and be ill advised to visit a dangerous country like PRC.

 

PRC can ill afford  to have a visitor like him. We wouldn't want our local news to be hoarded by garbage news on some old white folk tourist from Texas who has gone missing in China. There are more juicy news to watch like the unpredictable and dramatic developments in the volatile US political scene.

[singalion]

 

Oh, well. quoting articles from media or Reuters is not also a sign of lack of economic knowledge?

 

That Guest has given the most embarrassing evidence that he lacks any knowledge on economics...

and still claims he could judge on the knowledge of other people???

 

Even other people posted it here already about your knowledge in economics ...

 

On 12/13/2021 at 11:44 AM, Guest Wtf said:

Lmao       Actually, these are rhetorical questions because you clearly don’t have the first clue on macroeconomics.

 

 

[singalion]

Steve5380 watch out!

 

You seem on the monitor of the CCP...

 

At least you are hilariously on the monitor of some sneaky trolls, who can post CCP propaganda here but at next opportunity post just the opposite namely critic on China and the CCP.

 

This is like a snake trail... ↩️ 🐍...

 Watch out that you don't suffer from vertigo while reading it.

 

 

😂

 

[Guest Guest]

1 hour ago, singalion said:

 

Oh, well. quoting articles from media or Reuters is not also a sign of lack of economic knowledge?

 

That Guest has given the most embarrassing evidence that he lacks any knowledge on economics...

and still claims he could judge on the knowledge of other people???

 

Even other people posted it here already about your knowledge in economics ...

 

Quote articles from media or Reuters by all means. But no media or Reuters went to boldface the debt-to-GDP ratio as if it is such an important part of the entire article. Only stupid people like you will want to highlight such a passing remark as being important. 

 

And seriously? You need to go quote some Guest post from 3 years ago to support yourself now? First and foremost, the ridiculousness is already apparent. But more importantly, it goes to show that you either have so little support that those comments supporting you came so few and so far apart that you can remember them all, even if it is almost 3 years ago.

 

But more likely than not, the reason you can remember that post is simply because you were the one hiding behind Guest nicks to post it yourself. And yet, you go around telling everyone that this Guest and that Guest is this member and that member. LOL! 

 

[Steve5380]

3 hours ago, Guest HolyS*** said:

 

 

Has Steve5380 gone mad ? Visiting  Shanghai  ??!! Is he showing signs of dementia ?? Has he forgotten that PRC  is a dystopian country ruled by the totalitarian CCP as highlighted by western media and US government ?? !! 

 

I can't believe he actually believe the video he posted in this thread. Has he forgotten that CCP is the great state propaganda machine. The video he posted is sophisticated cgi effects and imagery manufactured by the CCP to deceive old  fools like Steve5380. They are not real. Shanghai is actually  very run down with dilapidated infrastructure  and  crumbling buildings. There  are a lot of beggars and homeless people  on the streets of Shanghai. Crime is rampant  and if Steve5380 is not careful,  he might be shot at and beaten up by the local gangsters there.

 

He's right about the high unemployment rates  in PRC now but doesn't he read the western media news  that CCP is recruiting its citizens as spies to monitor  foreigners like him who spread hate on CCP in China so that CCP can arrest  them and place them in concentration camps in Xingjiang. 

 

At his old age, one wonders if poor Steve5380 can survive the harsh conditions in the concentration camp. For his well being, he should utterly place  his  trust in the western  media news and be ill advised to visit a dangerous country like PRC.

 

PRC can ill afford  to have a visitor like him. We wouldn't want our local news to be hoarded by garbage news on some old white folk tourist from Texas who has gone missing in China. There are more juicy news to watch like the unpredictable and dramatic developments in the volatile US political scene.

 

I find that you are a true Guest HolyS***...  without the "Holy".   You must really have dementia.   You can't "believe that I believe" ???  Have you never see me writing that I am an AGNOSTIC,  therefore I am NOT a believer ???   And I DO find that the PRC is a dystopian country ruled by an evil totalitarian CCP! 

 

But your blabber does not mean that there are no great road interchanges in Shanghai.  Here is the video of an example:

 

 

 

This here is a classical interchange that looks great!  It is nothing extraordinary,  the one in Houston about two miles away from my home is more sophisticated.  But I never see it so well,  ha ha.  It is a pleasure to observe here the flow of cars on it.

 

And I don't believe that Shanghai can be characterized by "very run down with dilapidated infrastructure  and  crumbling buildings."  Yes, it suffers from an exodos of visitors and foreign residents,  but this does not mean its buildings are "crumbling".  Surely there are also a lot of beggars and crime must have risen,  but this does not show on the road interchanges.  None of these unemployed will be recruited to monitor me,  because I have no plans to visit the PRC.

 

And it is FOOLISH for you to think that being a senior like 80 years old means that you necessarily have to become a "poor Guest HolyS***".  You can remain as healthy and strong as you may be today,  but the "S***" may be still with you,  unless you become more civil.

 

 

 

 

[Steve5380]

3 hours ago, singalion said:

Steve5380 watch out!

 

You seem on the monitor of the CCP...

 

At least you are hilariously on the monitor of some sneaky trolls, who can post CCP propaganda here but at next opportunity post just the opposite namely critic on China and the CCP.

 

This is like a snake trail... ↩️ 🐍...

 Watch out that you don't suffer from vertigo while reading it.

 

 

😂

 

 

This will not give me vertigo, of which I have none.   You are right about how hilarious this is.    We post criticisms of China, and they respond by praising it endlessly.  We praise China, and then they have to revert to criticizing it.   This is so interesting... we have a CONTROL  of their expressed opinions  

[singalion]

5 hours ago, Steve5380 said:

 

This will not give me vertigo, of which I have none.   You are right about how hilarious this is.    We post criticisms of China, and they respond by praising it endlessly.  We praise China, and then they have to revert to criticizing it.   This is so interesting... we have a CONTROL  of their expressed opinions  

 

And you can still slip on a snake trail in the urban slang context... 

 

I guess you broke this Guest's neck... 

 

The thing I clearly can remember from 3 years ago is that this Guest didn't change his trolling attitude all the way until today... 🤣

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by singalion

[Guest HolyS***]

6 hours ago, Steve5380 said:

 

And I don't believe that Shanghai can be characterized by "very run down with dilapidated infrastructure  and  crumbling buildings."  Yes, it suffers from an exodos of visitors and foreign residents,  but this does not mean its buildings are "crumbling".  Surely there are also a lot of beggars and crime must have risen,  but this does not show on the road interchanges.  None of these unemployed will be recruited to monitor me,  because I have no plans to visit the PRC.

 

 

 

You are not demented after all !! That's good news for you, the PRC and us ! A blessing of birds' poo are showered upon you from the sky above for making the right decision !!

 

You can continue to dwell in your beloved home in Texas, the PRC will have one less desirable tourist, inmates in concentration camps will rejoice cos there's one less mouth to feed though PRC citizens will have lesser earnings cos there's one less person to report, PRC police will be happy cos they have one less person to arrest and transport him to the camps and we are saved from seeing garbage news of Steve5380's misfortune conviction. That's a very good outcome !!

 

 

6 hours ago, Steve5380 said:

 

This will not give me vertigo, of which I have none.   You are right about how hilarious this is.    We post criticisms of China, and they respond by praising it endlessly.  We praise China, and then they have to revert to criticizing it.   This is so interesting... we have a CONTROL  of their expressed opinions  

 

Oh you wrote this after your  marijuana fix ? Another shower blessing of birds' poo are descended upon you. 

 

[Steve5380]

1 hour ago, singalion said:

 

The thing I clearly can remember from 3 years ago is that this Guest didn't change his trolling attitude all the way until today... 🤣

 

 

You give the impression of being an intelligent person.  Hopefully you have plenty of worthwhile interests so that you don't need to focus your attention on what trolling this "Guest" has been doing for the last 3 years, and suddenly changed today.  

 

Hopefully you second my opinion that whatever the trolling attitude of this "Guest" is,  it is not worth an ice cooled bird shit to think about it. 

[Steve5380]

1 hour ago, Guest HolyS*** said:

 

You are not demented after all !! That's good news for you, the PRC and us ! A blessing of birds' poo are showered upon you from the sky above for making the right decision !!

 

Oh you wrote this after your  marijuana fix ? Another shower blessing of birds' poo are descended upon you. 

 

 

It has been many decades since I had marijuana.  I don't need it today to feel happy.  From your showering of bird's poo we recognize that you must be a BIRD.  A bird with diarrhea.  Be more careful with the worms you eat!  

[singalion]

Is this the start of the bursting bubble?

 

China’s Country Garden warns it could default on debt

Property developer has about $200bn in liabilities and says its sales are ‘under remarkable pressure’

 

Tue 10 Oct 2023

 

 

China’s largest private developer has warned it could default on its international debts, dealing another blow to the country’s embattled property industry.

Country Garden has about $200bn (£163bn) in liabilities and nearly $11bn in dollar-denominated offshore bonds. It has not defaulted so far, but has missed coupon payments on some dollar bonds since last month and faces the end of 30-day grace periods for making payments from next week.

 

It said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange the company said that it “expects that it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations when due or within the relevant grace periods, including but not limited to those under the US dollar notes issued by the company”.

 

It added: “Such non-payment may lead to relevant creditors of the group demanding acceleration of payment of the relevant indebtedness owed to them or pursuing enforcement action.”

Companies accounting for 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted on debts since the liquidity crisis hit the sector in 2021, leaving many properties unfinished.

 

 

 

[obgdcriv]

20 hours ago, Guest Hah nor said:

 

 

Haha, yup. Singalion ia talking jiao wei in his latest posts. Looking at his posts also feel vertigo. Oh wait, he will later accuse  us of being the same person or Sweetie Pie, he must be feeling vertigo reading our posts.

 

 

everyone in BW has put this quarrelsome bitch on ignore.

[singalion]

 

Trade news from China is not improving....

 

China’s exports and imports drop again in September

Published Thu, Oct 13 2023

 

China’s trade slumped this year amid lackluster global demand for Chinese good and muted domestic demand.

 

 

BEIJING — China reported a smaller-than-expected decline in exports in September from a year ago, while imports missed, according to customs data released Friday.

 

 

In U.S.-dollar terms, exports fell by 6.2% last month from a year ago. That’s less than the 7.6% drop forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

 

Imports also fell by 6.2% in U.S.-dollar terms in September compared to a year ago — slightly more than the 6% decline expected by the Reuters poll.

China’s exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year.

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/13/china-trade-exports-and-imports-fall-in-september.html

 

 

 

China’s trade slumped this year amid lackluster global demand for Chinese good and muted domestic demand.

 

 

Bucking the decline in trade with major trading partners were Chinese imports from the European Union, up modestly in September from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of the official data.

 

The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has recently surpassed the EU as China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.

 

For the first three quarters of the year, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 16.4%, while imports dropped by 6% during that time.

 

 

 

[Guest Guest]

Too long of an article for anyone to cut and paste over here. But here's the link for anyone interested to read. I have to say it is an exceptionally good read, even though it is also an exceptionally long read... 

 

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10 

 

It shows an extremely detailed analysis of how China got into such a situation now, unlike a particular member here who just loves to come to this forum and pretend to be smart by throwing in some of his personal opinions and act if if his personal opinions has any good solid facts to back him up at all.  

[obgdcriv]

4 hours ago, Guest Guest said:

Too long of an article for anyone to cut and paste over here. But here's the link for anyone interested to read. I have to say it is an exceptionally good read, even though it is also an exceptionally long read... 

 

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10 

 

It shows an extremely detailed analysis of how China got into such a situation now, unlike a particular member here who just loves to come to this forum and pretend to be smart by throwing in some of his personal opinions and act if if his personal opinions has any good solid facts to back him up at all.  

 

Thanks for sharing! Great article.

[Steve5380]

4 hours ago, Guest Guest said:

 

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10 

 

 

Yes, it is a pity that the economy is getting worse all the time.   Not that the "global dominance" is over,  there is no need for "global dominance".   The recovery from this will be the best if China forgets about all sorts of "dominance",  and concentrates on the welfare of its inhabitants. It should forget about plans to invade Taiwan, its fight over the South China sea, its artificial islands,  its military build up, etc. etc. 

 

But like the article says, when Xi Jinping and his CCP detect failure, they may want to make up for this by becoming more belligerent and aim at some military gain to save face.  Let's hope this will not happen. 

[Guest Your last laugh]

11 minutes ago, Steve5380 said:

 

Yes, it is a pity that the economy is getting worse all the time.   Not that the "global dominance" is over,  there is no need for "global dominance".   The recovery from this will be the best if China forgets about all sorts of "dominance",  and concentrates on the welfare of its inhabitants.

The highest debtor of the world is laughing at the highest creditor of the world?   Who is in upper hand I wonder. 

[Guest Guest321]

The fall of China coming soon.